Idea Validation
Stop building things people don't want by moving from opinion to evidence-based development.
The Guide
5 key steps synthesized from 12 experts.
Define the First Principles and Core Hypothesis
Dedicating specific time to 'understand work' before jumping into execution. Analyze the core problem and identify the industry constraints that everyone takes for granted to find your unique leverage point.
Featured guest perspectives
"Someone says, 'Hey, you know what? This would be great to build.' And you go pull data to go justify why that would be great to build. Call that identify, justify, execute. First you have to really understand from first principles what is actually going on."— Bangaly Kaba
"With the Founding Hypothesis, you grab those predictions, drag them onto center stage, and hit them with a dazzling spotlight. And you might not like what you see. By the end, you’ll have a Founding Hypothesis: a clear statement of what you believe that can be proved (or disproved) with Design Sprints."— Lenny Rachitsky
Run Manual or 'Concierge' Experiments
Simulate automated features using manual processes like WhatsApp or spreadsheets. This proves demand and pricing before committing any engineering resources to complex backend infrastructure.
Featured guest perspectives
"You fake it, you do a fake door test, you do a smoke test, Wizard of Oz tests. We used a lot of those in the tabbed inbox by the way, one of the first early versions was actually we showed the tabbed inbox working to people. But it wasn't really Gmail, it was just a facade of HTML and behind the scenes and according to the permissions that the users gave us some of us moved just the subject and the sender into the right place."— Itamar Gilad
"It's really this Wizard of Oz experience. We don't have to build anything. I coordinated with a bunch of interns and we were able to validate some of the value prop and conversion rates that we would expect in a subscription service."— Crystal W
Execute High-Velocity Design Sprints
Use highly-structured sprints to move from a hypothesis to a functional prototype in days. Test these prototypes with unbiased users who have 'zero skin in the game' to identify critical usability flaws.
Featured guest perspectives
"We would have an idea in the morning, come up with some sort of functional prototype, recruit a bunch of people that are legitimately good prospective users, but have zero skin in the game, ship fast so people can start playing with it. In the afternoon, we're already running pretty full scale experiment."— Grant Lee
"In a short five-day window, you can get a small set of people to quickly mock up a concept, convert it into some sort of a prototype and then go out there and get some sort of a validation. Oftentimes when we are working on some of these new things, we have our product teams that are focused on zero to one initiatives, run this five-day initiative, and at the end of it we say, 'Oh, this is great.'"— Varun Parmar
Test for Cold Market Pull
Reach out to cold prospects via LinkedIn or outbound channels to see if the product wins on merit. Monitor if users continue to use a primitive, 'hacky' prototype despite its obvious limitations.
Featured guest perspectives
"There are four signs your idea has legs: 1. People pay you money: Several people start to pay for your product, ideally people you don’t have a direct connection to 2. Continued usage: People continue to use your prototype product, even if it’s hacky 3. Strong emotion: You’re hearing hatred for the incumbents (i.e. pain) or a deep and strong emotional reaction to your idea (i.e. pull) 4. Cold inbound interest: You’re seeing cold inbound interest in your product"— Lenny Rachitsky
"Outbound sales is consistently the best signal for validating your idea (versus friends using your product, incubator batch-mates, or investor leads)."— Lenny Rachitsky
Validate Financial Commitment
Practice 'dollar-driven discovery' by requiring users to part with something of value. This could be a pre-product invoice, a letter of intent, or a physical payment to confirm the solution's worth.
Featured guest perspectives
"Every time you solve a problem, there's inherent risk involved. There's the risk of will people buy this or will they choose it or will they choose to use it, which is all a value type of risk. There's the risk of can they use it, which is a usability type of risk. The risk that we can build it to have the skills to build it or the time to build this, that's a feasibility risk. And the risk of it working for our business, which is a viability risk."— Christian Idiodi
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Guest Perspectives
Deep dive into what 11 podcast guests shared about idea validation.
Bangaly Kaba
"Someone says, 'Hey, you know what? This would be great to build.' And you go pull data to go justify why that would be great to build. Call that identify, justify, execute. First you have to really understand from first principles what is actually going on."
- Dedicate specific time to 'understand work' before jumping into identification or execution phases.
- Analyze the first principles of what is occurring in your product data rather than seeking data to confirm a bias.
- Adopt an 'understand, identify, execute' workflow to ensure your team is building the right thing.
Christian Idiodi
"Every time you solve a problem, there's inherent risk involved. There's the risk of will people buy this or will they choose it or will they choose to use it, which is all a value type of risk. There's the risk of can they use it, which is a usability type of risk. The risk that we can build it to have the skills to build it or the time to build this, that's a feasibility risk. And the risk of it working for our business, which is a viability risk."
- Prioritize value risk to ensure the team isn't building a solution that nobody actually wants or needs.
- Collaborate with designers and engineers to evaluate usability and feasibility early in the discovery process.
- Assess viability risk to confirm the solution works within the specific constraints and goals of the business.
Crystal W
"It's really this Wizard of Oz experience. We don't have to build anything. I coordinated with a bunch of interns and we were able to validate some of the value prop and conversion rates that we would expect in a subscription service."
- Simulate automated platform features using simple communication tools like WhatsApp to manually coordinate services.
- Process transactions and backend updates manually to test user willingness to pay for a new service.
- Overlay new onboarding or feature flows on existing screens using design mockups and screenshots instead of code.
Daniel Lereya
"The way we actually achieved it is that we said, 'Okay. In two weeks, we're going to have a hackathon, in which, each one of our developers is going to take one column and implement it in one day.' And, if you think about it, from four months to one day, it's mind-blowing."
- Implement short-duration hackathons to force the rapid implementation of features that traditionally take months.
- Build shared infrastructure that turns complex feature development into simple configuration tasks.
- Ship early versions to production immediately to gather real-world user feedback and prevent over-engineering.
Dmitry Zlokazov
"We can cut down the product in terms of functionality to just most critical features, but we will never compromise on the quality and UX and the aesthetics."
- Reduce product scope to only the most critical features rather than shipping a broad but low-quality MVP.
- Invest heavily in making the initial user experience frictionless and "lovable" to ensure negative feedback isn't just due to poor execution.
- Adopt the mindset that a product that is 99% done is closer to 0% to maintain a high bar for the final ship.
Grant Lee
"We would have an idea in the morning, come up with some sort of functional prototype, recruit a bunch of people that are legitimately good prospective users, but have zero skin in the game, ship fast so people can start playing with it. In the afternoon, we're already running pretty full scale experiment."
- Build a functional prototype within hours of conceiving an idea to maintain high momentum.
- Recruit prospective users who have 'zero skin in the game' to ensure feedback is brutally honest.
- Watch users struggle with the prototype in real-time to identify non-obvious friction points.
Gustaf Alstromer
"If I drill down what makes companies fail, it's quite simple. It's just like they don't talk to users, which means they don't find product market fit. And if they don't find product market fit, nothing else really matters."
- Talk to customers directly and immediately to learn if you are building something useful.
- Adopt 'make things people want' as the singular North Star for the entire founding team.
- Observe early adopters' workflows to identify and solve intense pain points that they currently manage manually.
Itamar Gilad
"You fake it, you do a fake door test, you do a smoke test, Wizard of Oz tests. We used a lot of those in the tabbed inbox by the way, one of the first early versions was actually we showed the tabbed inbox working to people. But it wasn't really Gmail, it was just a facade of HTML and behind the scenes and according to the permissions that the users gave us some of us moved just the subject and the sender into the right place."
- Create HTML facades to simulate feature functionality for users before building actual infrastructure.
- Run usability studies with internal "dogfooders" and external testers using these low-fidelity prototypes.
- Use early "smoke tests" to determine if a concept generates interest before starting production.
Nikita Bier
"We launched basically every type of app you can imagine. We launched mapping apps, chat apps, event meetup apps. Basically, every consumer app on mobile that you could think of. That actually helped us build a muscle to understand what people want and how to actually make things grow and how to test them."
- Launch various product categories (mapping, chat, utilities) to build intuition.
- Maintain a high velocity of experimentation to identify when a 'flywheel' starts spinning.
- Accept a high failure rate—even 14 duds—as part of the process to find one winner.
Oji Udezue
"So the zone of benefit works as a framework because people will not pay for things that don't either really shrink the workflow that they're doing or doesn't give them superpower. So the same amount of time, but twice as much output. But the most important thing is that it has to be noticeable."
- Validate if your product significantly shrinks the steps or time required for a specific task.
- Observe customer reactions to determine if the benefit is immediately 'noticeable' to a human user.
- Aim for 'superpower' status where the user achieves significantly more output in the same amount of time.
Varun Parmar
"In a short five-day window, you can get a small set of people to quickly mock up a concept, convert it into some sort of a prototype and then go out there and get some sort of a validation. Oftentimes when we are working on some of these new things, we have our product teams that are focused on zero to one initiatives, run this five-day initiative, and at the end of it we say, 'Oh, this is great.'"
- Run five-day Design Sprints to move quickly from hypothesis to validated prototype.
- Conduct user interviews during sprints to identify unmet collaborative needs.
- Prioritize synchronized movement and interactive elements that distinguish the product from generic tools.
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